Semicon — Archive

Semicon Briefing

The semiconductor industry is in a phase of accelerated geopolitical fragmentation: Washington is tightening export controls on AI chips globally and attempting to tie chip access to US investment obligations – a lever that could fundamentally restructure the global supply chain and further isolate China. Simultaneously, signals of a strategic TSMC-Intel partnership are intensifying, which would emerge under US government pressure and consolidate Western manufacturing capacity. Europe is responding with massive subsidies (NanoIC, EU Chips Act 2.0) and industrial policy packages, but remains dependent on Taiwan for cutting-edge technology below 5nm – a territory whose geopolitical stability is priced as secure in the short term (99% no attack through March 2026) according to Polymarket, but remains embedded as a latent escalation risk in the medium term (11% invasion probability through end of 2026).