Semicon Briefing

Applied Materials is losing massive China business due to tightened US export controls; spending by TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Micron can only partially offset the revenue shortfall according to current analysis. The report underscores the structural dependence of the equipment sector on the Chinese market and growing risks to margins.

Goldman Sachs predicts that China can reduce its technology gap in advanced chips to around 34% by 2035 – provided SMIC achieves significant profit improvement through multi-patterning. Lithography remains the critical bottleneck, as EUV access continues to be blocked.

Samsung and SK Hynix are evaluating manufacturing equipment from Chinese manufacturer AMEC for their China fabs as protection against further US export restrictions. The move signals that Korean chipmakers are actively building alternatives to Western equipment supply chains – a potential turning point for AMAT, Lam, and KLA.

Infineon has completed the acquisition of ams-OSRAM's analog/mixed-signal sensor portfolio for €570M effective July 1, 2026; the unit immediately contributes ~€230M annual revenue and is expected to be EPS-accretive. Infineon thereby solidifies its position in the automotive and industrial sensor market, while ams-OSRAM accelerates its portfolio transition toward optical solutions.

Newly confirmed: TSMC and Samsung have officially stated they will adopt High-NA EUV only at the 1-nm node (~2030) and are instead focusing on multi-patterning and pellicle workarounds – making Intel the only customer in volume production. For ASML, this means a delayed demand curve for its 165-ton machines; Intel's competitive advantage at 18A could materialize in the short term.

Samsung Foundry raised its 4nm process prices by 10–15% for US and Chinese customers in July 2026, while TSMC dominates with over 70% market share versus Samsung's 7%. The price increase is likely to push customers like Qualcomm further toward TSMC and complicate Samsung Foundry's recovery.