Semicon Briefing

TSMC presented its technology roadmap through 2029 with new process nodes (A12, A13, N2U) – and plans to continue relying on existing EUV tools instead of ASML's $400 million High-NA EUV systems. A16 shifts to volume production in 2027; the signal is strategic: TSMC prioritizes cost efficiency over bleeding-edge tools and puts pressure on ASML's sales.

Micron is lobbying the US Congress to prevent exports of chipmaking equipment to Chinese memory chip manufacturers YMTC and CXMT – despite existing trade restrictions, both companies are growing rapidly. This complements the MATCH Act and escalates the US-China technology conflict directly in the memory chip segment.

Analysis confirms: The 'TeraFab' project marketed as Tesla's in-house manufacturing initiative is actually a foundry capacity deal between Intel and Tesla – Intel supplies process technology, equipment know-how, and packaging. For Intel Foundry, it's an important reference project; for Tesla, a cost-efficient alternative to TSMC without own fab investment.

China has enacted new supply chain security regulations that could force foreign companies to prefer Chinese components or disclose data – in response to western export controls. The Netherlands simultaneously praised China's partial relaxation of export restrictions as a 'goodwill gesture', indicating diplomatic movement in the chip trade war.

GlobalFoundries plans to scale its fab in Dresden (Saxony) to over one million wafers per year by end of 2028 under the European Chips Act – financed with European subsidies. In parallel, ams OSRAM in Austria received €227 million in public funding for fab expansion; Europe's semiconductor capacity expansion is taking concrete shape.

Prediction markets price in a 90% probability that Intel will beat its Q1 2026 quarterly earnings – a stark contrast signal to prolonged foundry weakness and a potential stock catalyst. Combined with the TeraFab deal and the RISC-V automotive alliance, Intel could initiate a broader repositioning.