Semicon Briefing

US Congress pushes stricter export restrictions for chip equipment – ASML stock declined as a result. At SEMICON China 2026, Applied Materials and ASML notably held back, while Chinese vendors dominated exhibition space.

Applied Materials signed a billion-dollar contract with TSMC for next-generation EUV equipment in late March 2026, according to analysts. The deal strengthens TSMC's manufacturing advantage at 2nm nodes and should support AMAT shareholders despite China headwinds.

Prediction markets see NVIDIA with 98% probability as the world's most valuable company through end of April 2026 – Apple follows with only 1%. This underscores the market-dominant position of AI chip infrastructure in the current stock market environment.

The ESMC joint venture in Dresden – backed by TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, and NXP – is advancing construction of a European chip fab with over 10 billion euros in investment volume, half from EU Chips Act funds. Austria is additionally investing 227 million euros in ams OSRAM, while Europe strategically pursues supply independence.

According to CSIS analysis, Western export control policies are massively accelerating China's independent development: state investments and procurement mandates are systematically displacing foreign chips and equipment. For ASML and Applied Materials, this means sustained market share loss in one of their largest individual markets.

Prediction markets price in a 43% probability of a no-cut scenario for Fed rate cuts in 2026 – an increase of 19.4% this month. For capital-intensive semiconductor investments (fab construction, equipment purchases), a high-interest-rate environment means persistently higher financing costs.