Defense Briefing

A newly formed multinational anti-war bloc led by Turkey warned explicitly at an Istanbul summit of new US-Israeli strikes on Iran following the US midterms. This marks the first organized diplomatic countermovement to the openly communicated attack plans – a qualitatively new escalation level compared to previous reporting. The formation of this bloc with Turkish leadership signals a tectonic shift in Western alliance structures.

Since spring 2026, the USA has been organizing bilateral meetings with selected NATO allies, known as the 'Bergen Group' – an exclusive security circle outside formal NATO structures. This points to a quiet transformation of the alliance from collective to hierarchical defense, in which access to US security guarantees becomes increasingly selective. For European states outside this circle, structural credibility gaps in deterrence are emerging.

ISW documents that Russian forces systematically employ AI-altered footage and 'flag-raising missions' to simulate territorial gains that do not actually exist. This represents a significant new quality in information warfare: not merely propaganda, but algorithmically scaled falsification of battlefield reality. According to ISW assessment, Ukrainian forces are gaining comparative operational initiative across multiple front sections.

US authorities confirm that Chinese state-sponsored group Volt Typhoon actively infiltrates OT networks of critical infrastructure – not for immediate attacks, but for strategic pre-positioning in a crisis or conflict scenario. This approach – leveraging civilian infrastructure as a tool against military operations – was validated as exercise scenarios through Cyber Shield 2026 (1,000+ experts, 23 nations). The strategy of paralyzing military operations without attacking military networks marks a new dimension of hybrid warfare.

In June 2026, NATO officially established its ninth multinational Battlegroup in Finland (Forward Land Forces Finland) under Swedish command, thereby institutionally anchoring the northeastern flank. This is a concrete structural response to the gaps identified in the GLOBSEC report and strengthens continuity of deterrence from the Baltic Sea to the Arctic region. In parallel, NATO exercise Cyber Shield 2026 reported first integrated tests of infrastructure defense.