Defense Briefing

NATO planners explicitly warn that Europe neither possesses the military capabilities nor the political will to conduct a long-term war against Russia. Particularly criticized are weak public resilience, missing production capacities, and lack of political unity. This increases pressure on European governments to drastically raise defense spending and assume leadership responsibility within NATO.

Within NATO 3.0, member states agreed on a new target of 5% of GDP for broad defense spending by 2035 – a historic increase from the previous 2% target. Germany already reported a record 124.7 billion euros in defense spending in 2026. This triggers a massive investment surge in defense industry, infrastructure, and military technology.

European intelligence services record a significant increase in Russian sabotage acts, GPS jamming, underwater infrastructure attacks, and political influence operations on NATO territory. According to a CRS report to the US Congress, intensity has noticeably increased since spring 2026. The attacks aim to destabilize Western support for Ukraine and test NATO response capabilities.

Following US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, Iranian cyber actors intensified attacks on US critical infrastructure – specifically water and wastewater systems in at least 12 states. In parallel, critical security vulnerabilities (CVEs) skyrocketed to over 2,200 in 2026 alone, six times more than the average from 2022–2025. Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are considered a top global risk for 2026 according to Allianz.

Analysts expect after a relative lull in summer a renewed escalation sequence of Iranian attacks in September, potentially culminating in a resumption of full-scale war in October. The ceasefire is considered fragile despite 80% Polymarket assessment: Iran has repositioned strategic air forces and continued attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. 18 US soldiers have been killed so far, oil prices remain structurally elevated through Hormuz blockade.