Defense Briefing

EU defense spending reaches €454 billion for the first time in 2026, surpassing China and Russia combined. Five NATO members already meet the new 3.5% target, 17 states meet the 1.5% target – well ahead of the 2035 deadline. This historic trend reversal marks the end of European defense dependence and significantly strengthens the continent's strategic autonomy.

The US-Israel-Iran war ongoing since February 2026 is in a fragile ceasefire phase: Polymarket sees 90% probability of an effective ceasefire until August, while diplomatic talks continue. New is that the US has reportedly depleted nearly all its long-range missiles, significantly restricting US strategic capabilities and underscoring the importance of European arms production (ATACMS manufacturing in Germany).

A Russian drone attack on German territory and the deployment of French nuclear-capable jets in Poland signal a dangerous escalation level of the conflict on NATO soil. On Polymarket, the probability of a direct NATO-Russia military conflict by December 2026 has risen to 24% – an increase of 6% in just the last month. NATO faces the question of whether and how it will respond to hybrid Russian attacks on member territory.

Russia achieved only 106 km² net territorial gain in July 2026 – five times less than in July 2025 – while Ukraine constructed over 3,800 km of new fortifications. Simultaneously, even Russian pro-war channels report that front-line soldiers survive only 20–35 minutes due to escalating drone warfare, structurally jeopardizing Russia's capacity for large-scale offensive operations. The ISW sees the summer 2026 campaign approaching its culmination, suggesting strategic exhaustion of Russian offensive capabilities.

A new European intelligence ranking shows: British services lead, Estonia ranks 8th – driven by adaptation pressure from the Russian minority in Narva. Germany's BND benefits from a tripling of budget by the new federal government and will rise significantly in the future, while Hungary, Bulgaria, and Slovakia are rated as weakest performers. The ranking highlights critical vulnerabilities within the NATO alliance in reconnaissance and intelligence gathering.