Defense Briefing

Trump has called off a large-scale attack on Iran that was already prepared after Tehran apparently provided assurances for a deal – including opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its nuclear program. Polymarket sees a 72% chance of an effective US-Iran ceasefire by August. The situation remains fragile: Saudi Arabia had previously raised concerns about the planned massive strikes, and Israel continues to push for a harder line.

22 of 27 EU member states have taken a stance in a joint letter to the Commission and Council on mass migration via Ceuta – an unprecedented move that classifies migration pressure as a pan-European security issue. Italy's Prime Minister Meloni additionally threatened to suspend the Schengen Agreement with Spain, which is criticized as a domestic political distraction. The case demonstrates how migration pressure structurally strains EU cohesion.

NATO is considering, according to multiple reports, a massive increase in American nuclear weapons in Europe – possible locations are Poland, Finland, and Lithuania. The plans are a direct response to Russia's continued nuclear threats and rocket strikes on Poland. North Korea in parallel criticized NATO's expansion of military fuel infrastructure as war preparation.

Russia is experiencing a sharp increase in demand for skilled workers in military registration and mobilization documentation – a clear indicator of an impending new mobilization wave. At the same time, Russian citizens are increasingly researching emigration options, while Moscow officially denies mobilization plans. Combined with rocket strikes on Kyiv (27 ballistic missiles, only one intercepted), this points to an imminent escalation of Russian warfare.

EU member states spent 418 billion euros (2.2% GDP) on defense in 2025, with 454 billion projected for 2026 – Europe is on track to surpass the USA before 2030. At the NATO summit in Ankara, ATACMS missile production outside the USA (Germany/Rheinmetall) was decided for the first time. The Pentagon review of US troop presence in Europe could accelerate the withdrawal of American forces and force Europe to take responsibility.