Defense Briefing

Greece has passed a massive €4.3 billion defense package called 'Achilles' Shield'. This is part of a pan-European rearmament trend: European defense spending is expected to reach around €454 billion in 2026 – 75% more than in 2021. The package underscores how individual EU states are independently driving massive investments beyond the NATO framework.

Spain has publicly advocated for the creation of a joint European army to guarantee the continent's security in the long term. In the Reddit community, it has been suggested that Ukrainian armed forces be tasked with training due to their combat experience. The debate shows growing political pressure on EU states to assume defense responsibility from the US.

The Center for European Policy Analysis criticizes that NATO and EU, despite record spending and ambitious programs, are structurally failing to align: In July, two parallel rule sets emerged for the same defense base. The EU Commission launched five flagship projects under the 'Readiness 2030' program, which is to mobilize up to €800 billion – however without clear coordination with NATO command structures. This institutional failure jeopardizes the efficiency of massive investments.

The ceasefire probability for Russia-Ukraine by the end of 2026 has fallen month-over-month by 9 percentage points to 36% on Polymarket. Simultaneously, the probability of a diplomatic meeting by July 31 has collapsed by 22.5% in a week. In parallel, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba warns of the beginning of a 'total war' with severe supply shortages – a new escalation level in rhetoric.

New reports show that GRU and FSB units are actively compromising industrial control systems (SCADA/OT) in Western power grids and pre-positioning themselves for future sabotage. Russian intelligence services have also seized 87,000 IP cameras in Europe to monitor NATO military logistics routes. A 19-nation coalition has issued official warnings, but concrete countermeasures remain fragmented.