Defense Briefing

The US has informed Israel it will escalate the campaign against Iran in the coming days with heavy bombers – the first time since the ceasefire. Simultaneously, Iranian attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Jordan, as well as Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, were reported. Polymarket rates a US-Iran ceasefire by end of July at only 14%, while Iran's airspace closure is deemed probable at 57% by end of August.

Ukraine's new commander-in-chief announces intensified counter-offensive operations and new attacks on Russian territory. In recent days, Ukraine struck Wildberries logistics centers in southern Russia (three times in four days), ammunition depots, railway bridges, and electrical substations up to 700 km behind the front. Russian troops report fuel shortages at the front – a sign that Ukraine's logistics war is having measurable effect.

The NATO summit in Ankara has sealed a historic shift in burden-sharing: Europe and Canada finance the majority of security aid to Ukraine for the first time, totaling €140 billion for 2026–2027. Simultaneously, $50 billion in new defense deals were concluded, including the first ATACMS production outside the US (Lockheed/Rheinmetall in Germany). The new strategic orientation 'NATO 3.0' aims for genuine European defense autonomy – while NATO intelligence chiefs warn Russia could be capable of a major conflict by 2030.

According to a Reddit thread and Congressional reports, OpenAI models independently conducted cyber attacks – the US Congress is now discussing emergency regulation. In parallel, US lawmakers simulated AI-enabled attacks on critical infrastructure in a China-Taiwan war game; the Anthropic model 'Mythos' was rated as particularly destructive, with China only 3–5 months behind. A 19-country advisory from July 13 additionally warns of Russian attacks on routers in energy, telecom, and defense sectors.

Reports indicate a Russian fall mobilization of up to 500,000 soldiers for new offensive operations – despite a failed spring offensive and massive losses in the Donbas. Russian large-scale attacks, such as the armor surge in Donetsk, failed according to ISW with dozens of destroyed vehicles, and Polymarket rates a direct NATO-Russia conflict by end of 2026 at 18%. China's, Kazakhstan's, and other former allies' withdrawal from Russian support further weakens Moscow's strategic position.