Defense Briefing

The US conducted massive air strikes on Iran for the ninth consecutive night, including attacks on the Tabriz missile base. Iran responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks on a US base in Jordan, killing two American soldiers – a new escalation compared to previously reported incidents. The US is reinforcing its air tanker contingent in Israel and deploying additional combat aircraft to the region.

The market probability for a ceasefire by end of 2026 has fallen by 11 percentage points to 36% compared to the previous month – a significant decline from earlier values. In parallel, Russia is reportedly planning a major mobilization of 500,000 troops by autumn and launched one of the largest ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine to date. Meanwhile, Army Commander Syrskyi is expected to be replaced following protest waves in Kyiv, creating additional uncertainty about Ukrainian war strategy.

NATO planners are developing internal scenarios for European defense without US conventional forces, while the US National Defense Strategy 2026 explicitly envisions reducing American conventional support for Europe. Canada signed 16 defense agreements with Europe at the Ankara summit; simultaneously, US troops were quietly withdrawn from Estonia. Europe and Canada are increasing their defense spending in 2026 to $634 billion, yet NATO planners warn that strategic capabilities such as missile defense and strategic airlift remain completely dependent on the US.

Russian intelligence services are hijacking internet-connected security cameras across Europe and Ukraine to monitor NATO and Ukrainian military logistics in real time. A joint advisory from 19 allied cyber agencies on July 13, 2026 also warns that Russian state actors are systematically compromising routers in critical infrastructure (energy, telecommunications, defense) – with explicit focus on sectors directly affecting NATO supply routes. The US military is simultaneously conducting the Cyber Shield 2026 exercise (July 12–25) to defend against precisely these attack vectors.

The United Kingdom and Estonia signed a comprehensive bilateral security agreement that directly strengthens NATO's northern flank following the quiet withdrawal of US troops from the Baltics. The agreement is part of a wave of approximately $50 billion in new defense deals concluded at the Ankara summit, underscoring Europe's growing security policy autonomy. Given US warnings of possible Russian attacks on Poland to test NATO's alliance commitment, the agreement carries particular strategic significance.