Defense Briefing

According to US reports, Iran has resumed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz – a direct escalation following the brief ceasefire. Polymarket assesses the probability of further Iranian ship attacks by August at 98%, while a diplomatic meeting between the USA and Iran by July 10 appears practically ruled out (3%). Global energy supply is acutely endangered, as approximately 20% of global oil trade flows through the strait.

Washington is withdrawing the bulk of its troops from Estonia and plans no US military presence in the NATO member beyond 2026 – the move follows shortly after Trump's phone call with Putin. The most-liked Reddit comment captures the sentiment: 'Right on schedule, a few days after his phone call with Putin.' This significantly exacerbates the Baltic flank defense and forces European NATO partners to immediately build up capacity.

According to NATO sources, European members will announce at the Ankara summit that they have closed nearly all defense gaps created by the US withdrawal – sole critical exception: strategic bombers, where the USA is providing only one aircraft instead of two. Europe increased defense spending by a real $90 billion compared to 2024 according to NATO, while the alliance sets targets of 3.5% of GDP for core military spending by 2035. Stoltenberg warned that a NATO summit ending without a US commitment to aid would effectively dissolve the alliance.

NATO is replacing its aging US AWACS fleet with Swedish Saab GlobalEye reconnaissance aircraft – a historic break with dependence on US defense equipment, triggered by Trump's pressure on European self-reliance. Previously, plans to purchase six Boeing E-7 Wedgetail aircraft had failed after Pentagon withdrawal. The move marks a structural shift in the European defense market in favor of European manufacturers.

The hacker group 'JadePuffer' conducted the first documented ransomware attack executed entirely end-to-end by an AI – without human control in the attack chain. In parallel, Medtronic and Nissan were infiltrated via compromised Oracle PeopleSoft systems, affecting critical supply chains and health infrastructure. Google Cloud's Cybersecurity Forecast 2026 had already predicted AI-controlled attacks across the entire attack cycle; this case confirms the transition from theory to practice.