Defense Briefing

According to NATO's Supreme Commander, European allies have nearly closed the defense gaps created by US withdrawal – a historic turning point for the alliance. At the Ankara Summit (July 7–8), this is to be officially announced after Europe increased defense spending by $139 billion in 2025. A critical exception remains the US spy satellite network, which Europe cannot replace.

The total casualty count in the Russia-Ukraine war has exceeded 2 million – more than in the Battle of Stalingrad. At the same time, Russian military bloggers report that some Russian soldiers on the drone front are now surviving only minutes. Russia is responding with forced conscription, suggesting an increasingly desperate personnel situation.

A new report rates it as highly likely that a series of drone sightings over Britain and Europe were part of a covert Russian campaign to test NATO defense. The Russian shadow fleet is said to have served as a launch platform. This represents a new hybrid threat dimension that goes beyond classical cyberattacks.

US Central Command is considering relocating its bases from the Gulf States to Israel's Negev – a strategic paradigm shift amid the ongoing Iran conflict. This would cement complete military integration between the US and Israel and reposition the Gulf States in security terms. Polymarket rates direct Iran escalation at 12 percent probability.

NATO plans to replace aging AWACS airborne early warning aircraft with Swedish Saab GlobalEye jets – a concrete step to reduce dependence on US systems. The move coincides with the Ankara Summit and signals that the Europeanization of NATO reconnaissance capabilities is proceeding operationally. For the European defense industry, this means a multibillion-dollar contract.