Defense Briefing

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced at the NATO Defense Ministers meeting in Brussels on June 18 a six-month review of US forces in Europe – outcome dependent on how quickly Europe assumes its own defense. In parallel, US fighter jets, warships, and reconnaissance aircraft are already being withdrawn from the NATO contingent. The message is unmistakable: Washington is orienting toward the Pacific, Europe must become militarily self-sufficient – or a dangerous capability gap emerges before the Ankara summit in July.

Following the US-Iran ceasefire, both sides are negotiating a 60-day roadmap in Switzerland for a lasting peace agreement: Iran has agreed to IAEA inspectors, frozen assets are under discussion. Nevertheless, Trump threatens renewed attacks if Iran does not curb its Hezbollah allies, and 92% of Israelis view Iran as the war's victor – a domestically explosive result for Netanyahu. Polymarket values a lasting Israel-Iran peace deal by end of June at only 8% probability.

Ukraine deployed over 500 drones simultaneously and hit an oil refinery in Moscow – the heaviest attack on Russian core territory since the war's start. Russia responds by withdrawing air defense systems from the front to defend the capital, granting Ukrainian forces tactical space at the frontline. Zelensky signaled continuing the attacks if Putin does not come to the negotiating table – a new strategic pressure tool with direct impact on Russian energy infrastructure.

Three-quarters of all cyberattacks on critical national infrastructure are attributed to China, Russia, and Iran according to recent reports – CISA warns that hostile actors are already pre-positioned in systems and could disable electricity, water, and telecommunications networks in the event of conflict. The UK NCSC reported over 200 cyber incidents against critical infrastructure within one year; the acting CISA director called massive outages 'inevitable'. AI-enabled attack capabilities are forecast by NCSC to scale significantly by 2028.

The EU is conducting its largest military exercise to date in 2026, testing the European Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC) – including drone defense, decontamination, and logistics security with forces from 28 NATO countries, recently exercised in Nienburg/Weser. The exercise simulates scenarios at the Lithuanian-Polish border and is a direct response to the US announcement of placing European defense primarily in European hands. Europe is investing massively: defense spending increased in real terms by 20% in 2025 (+90 billion USD), Germany is accelerating its military buildup independent of US basing decisions.