Defense Briefing

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again – this time in response to Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon that killed 16 people hours after a ceasefire. US Vice President Vance travels to Switzerland for follow-up talks, while the fragile US-Iran deal faces massive pressure from Israel's continuation of attacks. Polymarket assesses the probability of sustained Hormuz closure through month-end at 92% – with direct impact on global energy supply and shipping.

In response to Hegseth's 'NATO 3.0' review, Europe is scrambling concretely: European NATO allies have already spent an additional $90 billion in 2025, with total spending set to rise to €335 billion by 2030, thereby surpassing Russia and China. Europe's defense is evolving from abstract debate to economic reality – with massive order waves for defense industry, drone and air defense systems.

Ukraine's new medium-range drones FP-2 and Behemoth (70kg warhead, 180 km/h) systematically destroy Russian supply chains: fuel depots, locomotives, bridges over the North Crimean Canal. Russia's spring offensive has largely stalled according to ISW, while Ukraine's firepower reaches strategically deep into Russian territory – a qualitative shift in warfare with signaling effects for European defense planning.

Reports of mass forced recruitment in Russian Penza Oblast reveal Moscow's growing personnel shortages after 1.4 million total losses. Most upvoted: 'It's no longer about winning – Putin is just buying time.' Combined with the Polymarket value of 46% ceasefire probability by end of 2026, a conflict dynamic emerges where exhaustion becomes strategically more relevant than military territorial gains.

DoD's Cyber Defense Command is working on a concrete plan for the first time to protect civilian critical infrastructure – triggered by 200 documented attacks on British infrastructure in one year and CISA warnings about pre-positioned state actors (China, Russia, Iran) in Western OT systems. NCSC warns: From 2028 onwards, AI-powered cyberattacks will dramatically expand the attack surface – Accenture is simultaneously announcing an end-to-end cybersecurity platform for critical infrastructure.