Defense Briefing

Trump announced new strikes against Iran for Thursday evening – and called them off at short notice, which Reddit users mocked as 'TACO' (Trump Always Chickens Out). Simultaneously, he publicly threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran's most important oil terminal – experts say an attack there would bring the entire region's oil exports to a halt. Polymarket nonetheless sees a 76-percent chance of a permanent peace deal by December, while the ECB is reportedly raising interest rates due to war-related energy costs.

A survey across 15 European countries shows a historic low in transatlantic trust: a majority of Europeans doubt whether the USA would come to their aid in case of attack. The most-liked Reddit comment (479 upvotes) equates Trump's America with Putin's Russia. The finding has direct strategic consequences: it reinforces political pressure for independent European defense and accelerates spending and military projects.

New and beyond previously reported troop commitments: satellite imagery and intelligence reports now provide concrete evidence of physical military infrastructure buildup near the Finnish border and other NATO flanks – in parallel, Russia's tank reserves are running out according to satellite imagery. ECFR data on defense readiness of European populations in the Baltic states show mixed signals. The combination of depleted tank reserves and simultaneous buildup on NATO flanks suggests post-war positioning.

British Defense Secretary John Healey resigned over an internal dispute regarding the level of the defense budget – NATO Secretary General Rutte learned of it live from a reporter and appeared surprised. The resignation illustrates how politically contentious the rearmament debate has become even in pro-NATO countries. The timing is delicate for NATO: the alliance is currently trying to raise European spending to new minimum targets of over 2.5 percent of GDP.

The US Department of Defense has raised the counterintelligence threat assessment for Israel to the highest level – Israel allegedly eavesdropped on US negotiations with Iran. This strains the already tense alliance between Washington and Tel Aviv, exacerbated by Trump's hesitancy on Iran strikes. The finding is geopolitically significant: it shows that two of the closest partners in the ongoing Iran conflict are simultaneously conducting intelligence operations against each other.