Defense Briefing

US CENTCOM confirms that American warships repelled Iranian attacks and conducted counter-strikes while transiting the Strait of Hormuz – a new escalation despite ongoing ceasefire. According to a Reddit thread, Iran has broken the ceasefire through attacks on the UAE and threatens further action. On Polymarket, a lasting peace deal by end of May stands at only 32%, while the probability of a US invasion of Iran is at 21%.

Russia's Victory Parade on May 9th took place for the first time without tanks – Western analysts and BBC interpret this as a symbol of Russia's weakening warfare. Meanwhile, ISW assessments report that Ukraine describes its front position as 'strongest in a year' and carries out drone attacks deep into Russian territory. Reddit users comment that Moscow now has to beg Kiev for a ceasefire for its own parade.

Poland is pressing NATO allies to advance the 5% GDP defense target to 2030 – five years earlier than previously agreed at the Ankara summit. The initiative comes at a moment when NATO-Europe already accounts for $559 billion in defense spending and the EU is launching its SAFE defense fund with €150 billion. The background is growing concern about reduced US engagement, which NATO Secretary General Kallas interprets as a signal to expand the 'European pillar'.

US authorities explicitly warn of Chinese sabotage attacks on critical infrastructure and demand enhanced protective measures – parallel to the already known Iran cyber threat, a second state-sponsored attack vector. CISA has launched a new program with the 'CI Fortify' initiative to prepare operators for offline-capable emergency operations, including prioritization of military infrastructure. According to Federal News Network, military planners assume that every modern geopolitical crisis will inevitably include cyber attacks on critical infrastructure.

According to the Guardian, European heads of state and government are actively preparing for a scenario in which the US would not intervene in an emergency – such as in the event of a covert Russian invasion of the Baltics. The NYT reports in parallel that EU Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty is being seriously discussed as an alternative mutual defense clause to Article 5. The Pentagon's Director for NATO Policy was abruptly reassigned in March, which according to The Atlantic further undermines US cooperation with allies.