Defense Briefing

Trump issued Iran an ultimatum: acceptance of the US peace plan or a significantly more intense bombing campaign. Iran initially rejected it, and is now reviewing a revised unilateral draft according to CNN. Polymarket rates a permanent agreement by end of May at only 28% – the situation remains highly volatile with direct impact on oil prices and global supply chains.

Following criticism from Chancellor Merz of Trump's Iran policy, Washington ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from German NATO bases – Trump signaled this is only the beginning. Germany is now examining how to fill the resulting gaps in missile defense and deterrence against Russia. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that Europe understood the message and must take on more responsibility.

President Zelenskyy announced a historic milestone: for the first time, Ukrainian forces successfully captured a Russian position exclusively using unmanned platforms without ground troops. This marks a qualitative shift in drone warfare and significantly increases pressure on Russia's personnel reserves. In parallel, a Russian drone attack hit a kindergarten in the Sumy region, triggering international outrage.

The US agency CISA launched the 'CI Fortify' program and is calling on critical infrastructure operators to build systems that function even during complete internet and telecommunications outages. The background involves Chinese Volt Typhoon attacks, where actors were pre-positioned undetected in US networks for years. Military planners assume that every future geopolitical crisis will be accompanied by massive cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

Recently completed NATO air defense exercises in Romania simulated combating coordinated drone swarms and underscore Romania's growing role as a nerve center of the eastern flank. Starting in 2026, a battlegroup led by Sweden will also be stationed in Romania. The exercises reflect lessons from the Ukraine war, where drones have fundamentally changed warfare.