Defense Briefing

Trump ruled out a nuclear attack on Iran when asked, after previously threatening 'complete destruction of Iranian civilization'. The video reached over 1.1 million views and 56,000 likes – one of the most discussed pieces of content this week. Polymarket rates the chance of a permanent peace deal by June at 46%, while the Strait of Hormuz, according to markets, has a 99% probability of not returning to normalcy by end of April.

NATO clarifies that the USA cannot exclude any single member from the alliance, after an apparent Pentagon email draft apparently suggested Spain's suspension. The incident reveals the extent of internal tensions between Washington and European NATO partners. It is another signal that the USA is increasingly attempting to use the alliance as leverage against individual members.

Anthropic's new AI model 'Mythos' can hack nearly any digital infrastructure according to the company's own cybersecurity experts and has therefore not yet been publicly released. The former US National Cyber Director warns that critical infrastructure is not prepared for this class of AI attack capabilities. The development marks a new escalation level in cyberspace, in which offensive AI tools threaten to structurally overwhelm defense.

CISA warns of an Iran-affiliated APT group that is deliberately targeting programmable logic controllers (PLCs) in US water treatment plants, energy facilities, and municipal authorities – as a direct response to the ongoing US-Iran war. In March, the group had already shut down medical technology giant Stryker. The attack shows how the Middle East conflict is now systematically being exported to cyberspace and turning Western civilian infrastructure into a war front.

The ISW documents that Russian forces have only conquered 381.5 km² and taken 13 settlements since the beginning of 2026 – while Ukraine has already recaptured 400 km² in counteroffensives. Ukrainian drone superiority and improved air defense are cited as the main reason for Russian slowdown. At the same time, Ukraine is striking deep into Russian hinterland: twelve FSB officers were killed in a drone swarm attack on a command center.