Defense Briefing

On February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran, killing revolutionary leader Khamenei and triggering widespread escalation. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US embassies, military bases, and oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Polymarket assesses the probability of a swift end to military operations at 100% by April 17 – yet the Lebanon front and Hezbollah activity keep the conflict simmering.

NATO Secretary General Rutte openly speaks of a transformation away from 'unhealthy US dependence' toward genuine transatlantic partnership. The EU mobilizes up to 800 billion euros for defense capabilities, with European NATO members for the first time substantially exceeding the 2% GDP targets. Trump called NATO allies 'cowards' for refusing to participate in the Hormuz conflict – revealing the structural crisis of the alliance.

Since March 2026, over 60 Iran-aligned cyber groups have systematically attacked US and Western critical infrastructure – energy, water, medical devices, and industrial controls are affected. CISA issued an urgent warning on April 8 regarding vulnerabilities in programmable logic controllers (PLCs); the hacker group Handala threatened coordinated cyber and missile attacks. NERC actively monitors the US power grid for Iran-linked intrusion attempts.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured approximately 480 km² in the Oleksandrivka/Hulyaipole area since late January 2026 – February 2026 was the first month since 2024 in which Ukraine gained more territory than it lost. Russia suffered 316 casualties per square kilometer of advance in Donetsk in the first quarter and simultaneously increases forced mobilization and recruitment bonuses. Polymarket sees only a 30% probability of a ceasefire by the end of 2026.

Ankara positions itself as an indispensable security partner for NATO's eastern flank: Poland, Romania, the Baltic states, and Nordic countries increasingly recognize Turkish value through large armed forces, combat experience, and a capable defense industry (drones, ammunition, tanks). Erdogan simultaneously warned Israel that an attack on Lebanon or Iran would be considered an attack on Turkey – underscoring Ankara's geopolitical dual role between NATO and the Middle East. This development could fundamentally shift the internal power balance within NATO.