Defense Briefing

Analyses point to a possible electoral defeat for Viktor Orbán, which would have far-reaching consequences for European right-wing populism. Orbán is considered the most important pro-Russian lever within the EU and NATO. A loss of power would weaken Hungary's veto position in EU defense policy and clear the way for EU defense lending.

Hungary's veto against the EU defense loan strains Polish domestic politics and hampers Europe's collective arms financing. Poland is under particular pressure, as the country protects its eastern border with only two Patriot batteries while fending off US demands for troop deployment. The blockade demonstrates the structural limits of European defense integration despite an increasing threat landscape.

French Rafale jets have taken over Baltic airspace surveillance in Lithuania, signaling Europe's growing operational independence on NATO's eastern flank. The move is symbolically significant: France is positioning itself as the leading power of European defense, while US engagement becomes more uncertain. This is part of a broader pattern in which European nations are assuming concrete responsibility on the flank.

The Institute for the Study of War documents systematic Russian gas shell deployments at the front—a clear violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention that has so far triggered little international reaction. The deployment indicates a new dimension of Russian warfare, possibly in preparation for the spring-summer offensive of 2026. The West's lack of sanctions response sends a dangerous signal regarding the enforceability of international norms.

New intelligence analyses confirm a dual Russian cyber strategy: the GRU links classic espionage campaigns (Prismex) with automated NTLMv2 credential harvesting attacks against NATO infrastructure. This combination significantly increases the efficiency of state-sponsored cyberattacks and targets western government networks. The development is independent of known Iranian cyberattacks and represents a separate, persistent threat to European security networks.