Defense Briefing

In the fifth month of war, the US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate: Iran struck Kuwait's largest oil refinery, two US aircraft were shot down, and US-Israeli strikes destroyed Iran's highest bridge in Karaj with at least 13 dead. UN Chief Guterres warned of expansion to regional conflagration – Polymarket sees 68% chance of ceasefire only by end of 2026.

According to ISW, Russia launched its spring-summer 2026 offensive between March 17-21 and is increasingly relying on mechanized attacks. Meanwhile, Ukraine was able to reclaim approximately 400 km² in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole area between January and mid-March. Polymarket assesses the chance of a ceasefire before June 30, 2026 at only 8% – attrition warfare at a high level.

President Trump has publicly stated he is seriously considering a US withdrawal from NATO and called the alliance a 'paper tiger'. Polymarket assesses a US withdrawal by April 30 at 10% – a historically high value. In parallel, Canada's Premier Carney reportedly requested via TikTok reports the relocation of Allied Command Transformation from Norfolk to Brussels, which would accelerate the structural decoupling of US leadership.

Over 60 Iran-aligned cyber groups have been systematically attacking US and allied critical infrastructure since the start of the war – including power grids, hospitals, and telecommunications. The Iran-linked group Handala claimed responsibility for an attack on medical device manufacturer Stryker Corp. and claimed a breach of Israeli air defense systems. The DHS shutdown simultaneously weakens US defensive capabilities during one of the most dangerous cyber situations in years.

Germany has introduced travel restrictions for men between 17 and 45 years old as part of its military reforms, requiring authorization for extended foreign stays. This is a direct consequence of the reinstatement of military conscription structures and Germany's €34.2 billion defense program. The measure signals a fundamental shift in German security policy and is being discussed across Europe as a precedent.