Defense Briefing

Iran has for the first time fired ballistic missiles with a range of approximately 4,000 km at the US-British military base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean – far beyond the previously assumed 2,000 km range. Simultaneously, missiles were fired at Israel's nuclear facility in Dimona, with dozens injured. This escalation demonstrates previously unknown Iranian intercontinental capabilities and fundamentally challenges Western intelligence assessments.

US President Trump has issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum: if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened to all vessels, he threatens to bomb Iranian power plants. Iran responded with threats to attack regional energy infrastructure and desalination plants should this occur. The mutual ultimatums raise the risk of escalation to a new level with immediate global energy market consequences.

According to ISW, Ukraine has recaptured 400 km² of territory since the start of the year – February 2026 was the first month since 2024 in which Ukraine made net territorial gains. Ukrainian special forces also destroyed Russia's secret Rubicon drone technology center in occupied Donetsk. Polymarket estimates a ceasefire by March 31 at only 1% probability, by end of 2026 at 34%.

The Trump administration laid off or forced out approximately one-third of CISA cybersecurity personnel before the outbreak of war. Simultaneously, Iran-linked actors are intensifying cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure – ports, hospitals, water utilities, and energy grids are identified by DHS as primary targets. For European NATO partners, spillover risk to their own critical infrastructure has increased substantially.

Germany budgeted nearly 90 billion euros for defense, the EU launched a 150 billion euro procurement facility, and Poland and the Baltic states are investing record sums. Nevertheless, experts in Foreign Affairs warn that Europe will not be capable of independent defense in the foreseeable future without US support – NATO Secretary General Rutte confirmed this explicitly. Germany is also struggling to meet NATO submarine hunting commitments by the end of the decade.