Defense Briefing

An Israeli airstrike has killed Ali Larijani, Iran's de facto leader – a blow that has fundamentally shaken Iran's power structure. Simultaneously, the US Embassy in Baghdad was attacked, and Iran now reports retaliatory strikes in nine countries across the region. Polymarket sees a 62% chance of a leadership change in Iran by end of 2026, suggesting a possible destabilization of the regime.

Joe Kent, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, has resigned and publicly stated that Iran posed no immediate threat and the war began under pressure from Israel and its lobby. The resignation sparked one of the week's most discussed debates with over 57,000 upvotes and reveals growing internal fractures in the Trump Administration. Axios also reports 'buyer's remorse' among Trump's inner circle.

SACEUR General Grynkewich confirms that NATO is completely rewriting its integrated air defense plans against drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic rockets – the first time in decades. In parallel, he warns of continuing Russian threats even after a possible Ukraine peace settlement. Additionally, NATO has launched the new 'Arctic Sentry' program, which consolidates multidomain exercises and surveillance in the Arctic region.

President Zelenskyy revealed that Russia is scaling back missile production to instead mass-produce drones – with a goal of 600–800 daily attacks in 2026 and an end target of 1,000 drones per day. Meanwhile, Ukraine has severely disrupted Russia's Shahida drone network in Belarus and is advancing in the Dnipropetrovsk region, constraining Russia's offensive plans in the Oleksandrivka direction. This structural shift in Russia's warfare requires a fundamental realignment of Ukrainian and NATO air defense.

Iran-linked hacker group Handala conducted a destructive wiper attack on medical device company Stryker on March 11, 2026 – the opening salvo of a broader wave against US and MENA infrastructure in energy, healthcare, and finance. CISA has already recorded 136 CVEs actively exploited by Iranian actors, while experts warn of one of the fastest cyber warfare escalations in history. The FBI has significantly intensified its public communications on AI-powered phishing and critical infrastructure.