Defense Briefing

Iran has deployed the Sejjil solid-fuel rocket for the first time in its ongoing war against Israel and the USA. The solid-fuel propulsion makes the rocket harder to detect and intercept than previous liquid-fuel systems – a qualitative leap in Iran's offensive capabilities. Israel simultaneously reports that its stocks of ballistic missile defense systems are dangerously low.

Israel has officially informed the USA that its stocks of ballistic missile defense interceptors are at critically low levels – already depleted by the previous year's twelve-day war. Iran's concurrent deployment of the difficult-to-intercept Sejjil rocket dramatically worsens the situation. This increases pressure on the USA for further weapons deliveries and could fundamentally alter the conflict's escalation dynamics.

Military analysts expect the start of Russia's long-announced spring offensive against the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. According to ISW situation reports, Russia has already exhausted nearly its entire available frontline troop pool at the Sloviansk front and is pulling logistics personnel into frontline attacks. Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhia region report their own counteroffensives that disrupt Russian attack plans.

The Polymarket betting market for a ceasefire by end of June 2026 has fallen this month by 11.5 percentage points to just 18% – a clear signal that markets view a near-term agreement as increasingly unlikely. The simultaneous escalating frontline fighting around Sloviansk and the ongoing Iran war, which ties up Western attention and resources, are likely reinforcing this trend. For European defense planning, this means a sustained dual burden.

The IISS Military Balance 2026 report warns of growing Russian gray-zone operations on the NATO eastern flank, including UAV incursions into member state airspace and covert sabotage acts against infrastructure. In response, frontline states have launched multilayered defense programs. This development occurs simultaneously with NATO's revision of integrated air defense – the alliance is structurally responding to a threat landscape that has qualitatively changed.