Defense Briefing

After 15 days of war, the USA and Israel are massively intensifying their attacks: Trump confirms bombing of Kharg Island and deploys an additional 5,000 Marines plus an Amphibious Assault Ship. Iran fires hypersonic missiles at Israeli cities and now explicitly threatens attacks on US oil and energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Polymarket sees ceasefire by March at only 2% – by end of 2026 at 70%.

The Handala Group (Iran-MOIS) deleted 200,000 Stryker medical systems via wiper attack – emergency services in Maryland lost critical cardiac data. In parallel, a cyber attack on Poland's nuclear research center was averted, with indicators of Iranian authorship. Experts warn of a new dimension in digital warfare: power grids, water supply, and hospitals in Western countries are now considered primary targets.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni unexpectedly announces withdrawal of all Italian armed forces from the US-led Middle East operation – a major blow to coalition cohesion. The move triggers domestic debate in several NATO states and strengthens the position of those demanding Europe's strategic autonomy from Washington. The Reddit thread with 9,450 points shows high public interest; the break could permanently damage NATO alliance solidarity.

NATO Secretary General Rutte demanded a historic 5% of GDP for defense by 2035 at BEDEX 2026 in Brussels, after the 2025 The Hague Summit had already agreed to 3% as an interim target under US pressure. Czech Republic passed its 2026 budget but significantly misses the NATO target – a pattern emerging in several European countries. The gap between aspiration and reality of European rearmament is growing, while Russia continues to build new units on NATO's eastern flank according to the latest Threat Assessment.

The Iran war creates what market observers call the 'largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets' – Polymarket sees crude oil above $100 USD by end of March with 84% probability. Chinese ships in the Hormuz area deliberately identify themselves as such to avoid attacks; US officials are actively discussing oil futures trading according to media reports. MAGA voters publicly express frustration over soaring gas prices – a domestic political risk factor for Trump.