Defense Briefing

Iran has reportedly attacked a facility in Turkey housing 50 US nuclear weapons – NATO air defense intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish territory. In response, NATO is deploying a second Patriot system from Allied Air Command Ramstein to protect critical radar installations. This is the first direct military confrontation between Iran and NATO territory and marks a dangerous escalation level.

Iran has now launched missile and drone attacks against nine countries – including Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – and additionally threatens attacks on US and Israeli banking interests in the region. The first six days of war have already cost the US $11.3 billion according to the Pentagon; the total death toll exceeds 1,300. Israeli security sources acknowledged to the Guardian that there is no clear plan for regime change – a dangerous strategic vacuum.

The EUCOM commander has for the first time publicly confirmed that Europe can independently conduct its conventional defense by 2035 – supported by the new US National Defense Strategy 2026, which officially designates Europe as a secondary theater. SIPRI data simultaneously shows that European NATO states are significantly reducing their dependence on US arms imports. This structural change accelerates European rearmament but entails significant capability gaps in the short term.

The NATO major exercise Cold Response (March 9–19) with 25,000 soldiers from 14 nations trains Arctic defense in Norway – Norwegian F-35s intercepted a Russian spy plane during the exercise. In parallel, NATO is systematically investigating scenarios that could lead to an Arctic conflict with Russia for the first time. The exercise sends a signal toward Moscow, while Russian eastern flank threats from UAV incursions and sabotage are increasing according to IISS.

February 2026 was, according to Wikipedia timeline, the first month since 2024 in which Ukraine reclaimed net more territory than it lost – a total of 460 km² since the start of the year according to Zelenskyy. Russia responded by withdrawing elite units (VDV) from Pokrovsk toward the south, indicating increasingly strained personnel reserves. Polymarket sees a ceasefire by end of 2026 at only 40% probability – a decline of 7% in just this month.