Defense Briefing

Since February 28, 2026, the US and Israel have conducted joint airstrikes on Iranian military and government targets, resulting in Khamenei's death. Iran has responded with over 500 missiles and 2,000 drones against US bases, Israel, and Gulf states; the Strait of Hormuz is acutely threatened (Polymarket: 97–98%). The conflict is expanding to nine countries, driving oil prices up 25%, and triggering massive societal backlash in the US.

European defense budgets are set to increase from $300 billion to $600 billion over five to seven years; the EU additionally plans up to 800 billion euros under ReArm Europe. The NATO summit in Turkey in July 2026 focuses on drones, AI, and new warfare technologies rather than conventional tanks. Germany is ramping up significantly, triggering both support and concern among European neighbors.

In February 2026, Russia recorded only 123 square kilometers of territorial gains, its weakest monthly advance since April 2024, while Ukraine for the first time since the Kursk offensive of 2024 recaptured more territory. Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine has recaptured 460 square kilometers since the start of the year. Polymarket rates a ceasefire by March 2026 at only 2% probability, by end of 2026 at 38%.

Iranian APT groups are intensifying cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in the US and allied nations, while the US cybersecurity agency CISA is weakened by budget freezes and layoffs. Power grids, financial systems, and industrial facilities are acutely at risk according to security researchers; 64% of organizations now account for geopolitically motivated cyberattacks in their risk planning. The conflict with Iran combines large-scale kinetic warfare with coordinated state cyber operations against Western targets for the first time.

The Pentagon officially opposes nuclear ambitions by Poland or other European states, while European politicians facing diminishing US security guarantees under Trump are discussing precisely this option. NATO expansion to include Sweden and Finland, along with Germany's rearmament, strengthen conventional deterrence but do not resolve the strategic nuclear question. Prediction markets assess the probability of a Russian attack on a NATO member by March 2026 at only 4%, reflecting the deterrent effect of ongoing rearmament.