Defense Briefing

On February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel launched a large-scale offensive campaign against Iran (Operations 'Roaring Lion' and 'Epic Fury'), striking at least 14 Iranian cities and claiming hundreds of civilian casualties. Iran responded with counterattacks on US bases and struck eight countries in the region, including Dubai and Bahrain, massively disrupting Hormuz Strait traffic and threatening regional escalation.

The USA formally calls on Europe to assume primary responsibility for conventional NATO defense – EU Council President announces €800 billion defense spending through 2028. This structural paradigm shift in transatlantic security architecture forces European industries into massive armament investments and fundamentally alters the geopolitical distribution of power.

Ukraine reports the fastest territorial gains in two and a half years, including a breakthrough in Saporizhzhia of up to 16 km and progress near Pokrovsk, while Stratcom confirms that Ukraine has recaptured more territory since June 2022 than Russia has gained. Simultaneously, ISW warns of Russian preparations for a spring offensive against Ukraine's 'Fortress Belt' and intensified air strikes on Ukrainian logistics.

The largest cyberattack on Polish energy infrastructure to date has been attributed to the Russian FSB – a sign that destructive cyber operations are being systematically expanded beyond Ukraine to NATO states for the first time. Meanwhile, researchers warn that China's 'Volt Typhoon' remains deeply embedded in US critical infrastructure and CISA has been weakened by massive staff cuts.

Washington calls on Europe to spend 5% of GDP on defense, but simultaneously criticizes European arms protectionism and demands purchases of American systems – a contradiction that deliberately undermines Europe's industrial autonomy. The EU, however, seeks qualified majority voting on defense decisions and independent long-range capabilities, leading to structural rivalry in the transatlantic arms industry.

Finland warns against Article 5-like security guarantees for post-war Ukraine, as this could undermine NATO credibility, while Spanish Premier Sánchez calls nuclear rearmament a 'dangerous game' and advocates for moral disarmament. The debate reveals deep rifts within the alliance over deterrence doctrine and burden-sharing, precisely as an Iran war strategically ties down the USA.