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Semicon Briefing

July 20, 2026 · 03:48 Uhr

1

ASML raises 2026 revenue guidance to €43–45 billion

r/stocks / Reuters

ASML beats Q2 expectations and raises annual guidance to €43–45 billion – driven by AI demand and full order books. Simultaneously, the company announces plans to expand EUV and DUV capacity by 30% within two years, which dampens concerns about bottlenecks in the AI chip supply chain.

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2

ASML-Intel milestone: High-NA EUV in Intel 18A production

gurufocus.com / simplywall.st

Intel Foundry has become the first customer to move ASML's High-NA EUV lithography into production for the 18A process node – an industry first. This strengthens Intel's positioning in foundry competition against TSMC and Samsung and signals that customer roadmaps are now synchronized with ASML's next generation of equipment.

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3

EU approves €659 million in German subsidies for four chip plants

semiengineering.com / X @jrubiomart

The European Commission has approved state aid of €659 million for four new German semiconductor facilities intended to produce silicon carbide epitaxial wafers, power MOSFETs, and specialty detectors. The move underscores Europe's determination to achieve a 20% global market share by 2030 under the EU Chips Act.

4

Infineon opens world's largest power semiconductor fab in Germany

ico-optics.org / X @fxsignale

Infineon has opened its largest facility to date in Dresden, supported by €1 billion from the EU Chips Act, thereby doubling its Dresden capacity for power semiconductors and analog chips. The project is regarded as Europe's answer to Asian dominance in power semiconductor manufacturing and strengthens the EU's supply chain sovereignty.

5

Diodes Inc. acquires ElevATE Semiconductor for $250 million

X @BIS_Infotech / X @GulfIndustryOn

Diodes Incorporated has completed the acquisition of ElevATE Semiconductor in a $250 million all-cash transaction, expanding its analog and mixed-signal portfolio. The acquisition is part of a broad M&A wave in the semiconductor sector, driven by AI-driven demand for specialized chips.

6

Kimi K3: China's AI catches up – SOX Index drops 5.7%

r/ArtificialIntelligence / X @d3x2

Moonshots' Kimi K3 delivers comparable frontier AI performance at 40% lower cost than US models according to analysts, triggering a sell-off in the semiconductor sector – the SOX Index lost 5.7% in a single day. Market participants are questioning whether the scarcity premium in chip valuations is sustainable if China builds competitive models without US silicon.

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Situation Report

The semiconductor sector is experiencing a paradoxical week: record results from TSMC (+36% YoY) and ASML (guidance increase) collide with a sharp market pullback triggered by China's Kimi K3 breakthrough, which shakes the strategic premise of Western chip dominance. Simultaneously, geopolitical bloc formation is intensifying – the US is consolidating manufacturing sovereignty with the $265 billion TSMC commitment and CHIPS Act subsidies, while the EU is building its own capacity with €659 million in subsidies and Infineon's new Dresden megafab. The ASML-Intel High-NA partnership marks a technological turning point that makes Intel's foundry comeback more credible and increases pressure on Samsung, whose 3nm yields continue to lag below 60%. The greatest escalation risk lies in US-China export control dynamics: while Polymarket Taiwan invasion bets stagnate at 4%, China is systematically building alternatives to US technology through CXMT IPO and Kimi K3 – a process that could long-term erode the demand base for Western chipmakers.

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