April 28, 2026 · 03:49 Uhr
TSMC confirmed at its North America Technology Symposium that it will not include High-NA EUV machines from ASML (~$400 million/unit) in its current roadmap – instead focusing on optimized classical EUV until at earliest 2029. This puts significant revenue pressure on ASML and fundamentally questions the business model of the next machine generation.
Despite TSMC's rejection of High-NA, strong quarterly forecasts from both companies signal unbroken AI infrastructure demand from US hyperscalers. For investors, this means: the AI spending wave remains intact – the pressure now lies with ASML to secure its High-NA sales through Intel and Samsung.
New reports document systematic circumvention of Western export controls: China procures US chipmaking equipment through third-party countries in Southeast Asia, closing critical gaps in its own semiconductor ecosystem. US lawmakers respond with the MATCH Act, intended to bind allies to multilaterally close these loopholes – with direct consequences for equipment makers like Lam Research and KLA.
Beijing officially warned the EU on April 27 to take countermeasures if the planned EU Industrial Accelerator Act discriminates against Chinese companies. The escalation hits Europe at a time when ESMC in Dresden and other EU fab projects depend on stable supply chains and Chinese customers.
SpaceX interrupted an ongoing $2 billion funding round for AI coding tool Cursor with a $60 billion acquisition offer, proposing a $10 billion 'collaboration fee'. The deal marks a new escalation point in the race for AI developer tools and shows how hardware-centric tech conglomerates are aggressively moving into software AI.
Marvell canceled purchase orders from Celestial AI, citing an alleged confidentiality breach as the reason – POET Technologies, involved as a supplier, subsequently lost 30% in pre-market trading. The case illustrates the fragile trust basis in the AI chip supply chain and the legal risks of partnerships between established semiconductor firms and startups.
The semiconductor industry is in a phase of strategic realignment along geopolitical fault lines: TSMC is refusing the jump to the next lithography generation and instead betting on cost discipline, while ASML must recalibrate its High-NA EUV sales. Simultaneously, China's systematic circumvention of Western export controls through third countries is undermining the effectiveness of the MATCH Act before it is even passed. Europe finds itself in a vise: Beijing's threat of retaliation against the EU Industrial Accelerator Act hits a region still building its chip sovereignty and dependent on Chinese markets and supply chains. At the corporate level, strong TSMC and ASML forecasts signal unbroken AI infrastructure spending – yet geopolitical risks along the supply chain remain the dominant uncertainty factor for 2026.
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