Energy Newsletter

European gas prices more than doubled from September 2025 (€30/MWh) to September 2026 (€81/MWh) – main drivers are the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and supply disruptions. Germany now sources 44% of gas from Norway, with the remainder from the Netherlands, Belgium, and US LNG, leading to volatile prices and inflation pressure. Storage levels are falling to their lowest in 15 years, winter risks are substantial.

Germany's four transmission system operators (50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT, TransnetBW) announced preliminary grid fees for 2027 of 3.54 ct/kWh – an increase of over 20% compared to 2026. Reasons include exploding redispatch costs due to north-south grid bottlenecks and costs for grid expansion and storage. Federal subsidies are intended to dampen the increase, but consumers and industry still expect higher electricity prices.

Vattenfall has installed the final monopile at Germany's largest offshore wind farm Nordlicht I – 980 MW capacity, commissioning 2028. In parallel, Vattenfall is building 285 MW battery storage in Germany and expanding EV charging infrastructure (2x power charging since start of year vs. previous year). Strong signal for energy transition implementation despite price volatility.

Norway is reducing electricity exports to Germany – balancing function for supply fluctuations is now absent. Discussions reveal: During dunkelflaute (2+ weeks with no wind/sun), storage capacities are insufficient, gas-fired power plants remain necessary. At the same time, solar installations must be partially shut down because grids are overloaded – paradox between overcapacity and bottlenecks.

Ocean Breeze Energy is acquiring the 60 MW alpha ventus wind farm from EWE, RWE, and Vattenfall and wants to extend operations beyond 20 years. EnBW brought 960 MW He Dreiht to the grid without subsidies, breaking subsidy dependence. Both projects show consolidation and efficiency gains in the offshore sector, but also strategic positioning ahead of grid fee explosion.