Energy Newsletter

European gas prices have more than doubled from €30/MWh (Sept 2025) to €81/MWh (Sept 2026). Germany is sitting well below the European average (64%) with only 50% gas storage capacity utilization, while the EU warns of a winter crisis. Risk: Further doubling to €140-150/MWh in case of a cold winter with massive consequences for industry and households.

Germany's 1-year electricity forward prices have risen to €122/MWh (highest level since 2023), January contracts above €180/MWh. Germany has the highest electricity prices of all G20 countries at €0.387/kWh. Main driver: Exploding gas prices and low storage levels are jeopardizing competitiveness.

Renewable energies supply 59.1% of the electricity grid (H1 2026), Germany exports more electricity net than it imports in 2026. However: Of 16,776 planned km of grid expansion, only 2,919 km are completed (as of March 2026), four transmission system operators have ~€50 billion in debt. Bottleneck: Grid expansion takes up to 12 years instead of planned 5-6 years.

RWE increases its stake in transmission system operator Amprion to majority, intensifying concentration of electricity infrastructure. In parallel: Second physical sabotage attack on critical electricity infrastructure in Germany (Sept 2026, 50Hertz substation, 4,200 MW RWE capacity offline). Security risk: Critical infrastructure protection gaps under grid stress.

EnBW is constructing 400 MW/800 MWh battery storage at the Philippsburg site (one of the largest grid-scale projects), Vattenfall plans 1 GWh storage capacity. According to Climate_Inform, large-scale storage will come online in 2027/2028 and could increase renewable share to over 75% by end of 2028. Strategic turning point: Storage as key to system stability at high renewable penetration.