Arveum Capital PartnersCapital Partners

Energy Newsletter

March 9, 2026 · 07:34 Uhr

1

Energy Crisis: Gas Prices Explode 50% Following Iran Conflict

@cryptorover (X), @BourseetTrading (X), Reddit r/wallstreetbets, Euronews

Following escalation in the Iran conflict, European gas prices have risen 50% within days, while EU gas storage falls below 30% and Germany has only 38% capacity remaining. The outage of 20% of global LNG production and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acutely threaten Europe's energy supply. This drives electricity prices up in Germany and threatens energy-intensive industries like Mercedes-Benz.

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2

Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out Dramatically Intensifies Fossil Fuel Dependence

@minenergybiz (X), JPMorgan-Analyse

A JPMorgan analysis shows: if Germany had retained nuclear power plants, the country would need 50% less electricity from fossil fuels and 84% less natural gas. The nuclear phase-out significantly intensifies the current gas shortage and price volatility. This puts the feasibility of the energy transition under pressure.

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3

EON Influence on German Energy Policy: Corruption Suspicions

@42tw1tter1sd3ad (X, mehrere Tweets mit 945+ Likes)

Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Reiche was head of EON subsidiary Westenergie until April; planned network package tightening matches EON demands exactly, 75% of network capacity problems stem from EON. Tweets with over 1000 likes indicate massive concern about conflicts of interest and possible lobbying. This threatens competition and energy transition credibility.

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4

Energy Transition Fails at Physics: Only 2.7% Self-Supply with Renewables

@datenfuzzi_de (X, 848 Likes), @VonFolkwang (X, 3251 Likes)

Germany could supply itself with renewable energy for only 25 hours (2.7%) through 2026; analyses show structural supply gaps during dark doldrums. Geopolitical crises reveal that wind and solar dependence does not function during energy scarcity. The all-electric strategy comes under massive pressure.

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5

Grid Expansion: Ultranet Completion End of 2026, TSO Reforms Take Effect

@IWR_News (X), Amprion/50Hertz/TenneT/TransnetBW Presseinfo

Major projects like Ultranet will be completed by end of 2026; A-Nord follows in 2027, SuedLink/SuedostLink in 2028. The four TSOs will introduce maturity assessment procedures starting April 2026 instead of first-come-first-served, which should accelerate storage and large consumer projects. These infrastructure measures are essential for power grid stability given the energy crisis.

Situation Report

Germany faces an acute energy security crisis: geopolitical escalation in Iran leads to 50% gas price spikes and depletes European storage to below 30%, while the energy transition strategy structurally reaches its limits (2.7% self-supply with renewables). The nuclear phase-out increases fossil fuel dependence by 84% for natural gas, while at the same time investigative research points to significant conflicts of interest between government policy and EON. Stabilization now depends on grid infrastructure projects (Ultranet completion 2026) and industrial policy reforms, but medium-term, a consolidation of energy scarcity threatens German competitiveness and European security.

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