Defense Briefing

Washington and Tel Aviv are finalizing plans for a second wave of attacks on Iran immediately following the US midterm elections in early November. Iran is threatening retaliatory strikes on oil facilities, submarine cables, data centers, and AI infrastructure across up to seven Gulf states. The first attack series (February–April 2026) already drove energy prices and inflation higher globally and depleted US missile defense stocks – a second round carries substantial escalation risk.

The five leading European NATO members (E5) jointly declared they will assume greater responsibility for continental security going forward – while reaffirming the USA as an 'indispensable ally'. The backdrop includes US troop reductions in Europe and pressure from Washington to soften European NATO rhetoric toward Russia. This strategic pivot is accelerating the development of autonomous EU defense structures as a complement to the transatlantic alliance.

Ukrainian forces report significant territorial gains in the south and describe the front line as strongest in some time; Zelensky speaks of a new initiative. Polymarket continues to show 70% probability of a ceasefire by year-end, yet ISW analyses simultaneously show massive Russian drone expansion near Millerowo as a countervailing signal. The war was formally extended through January 2027, while peace talks in the UAE are priced at 71% probability as the next negotiation venue.

The United Kingdom, Poland, Finland, and the Netherlands have signed a new multilateral defense agreement (MDM) set to become operational by 2027, encompassing joint arms procurement and operational planning. The MDM complements the existing NATO framework and sends a clear signal to Moscow, even as the USA continues its military drawdown from Europe. Poland stands out particularly: with ~4.5–4.8% of GDP allocated to defense spending, it holds the highest NATO share, making Warsaw a key nation on the eastern flank.

Under Defense Secretary Hegseth, the Pentagon is mandating through 'Project FORTRESS' that all US military installations on home soil operate for 90 days without external power, water, and communications networks – a direct response to the pre-positioning of Chinese Volt-Typhoon groups within US energy networks. CISA additionally reported that 72% of all cyberoperations in Q4 2026 targeted critical infrastructure – a massive increase compared to previous quarters. The measure signals that US military planners regard a cyberattack on domestic infrastructure as a realistic war scenario.