Defense Briefing

According to current situation reports, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a standstill – crude oil and cargo throughput are falling to zero, while Iran is taking an offensive stance. Trump simultaneously threatened Oman with bombardment should it block peace negotiations, and is pursuing new talks with Tehran starting Monday. Maritime risks to energy supply chains and global commodity markets have thus reached a new escalation level.

New data shows that Russia's territorial gains in the Donbas in 2026 are approximately 50 percent below the previous year's level, while Ukraine has successfully regrouped reserves and regained tactical maneuvering room. Ukraine is simultaneously conducting a record-breaking drone campaign with 600 drones headed toward Moscow and systematically striking Russian logistics and energy infrastructure deep in the rear. The combined pressure suggests an exhaustion spiral among Russian forces, though a breakthrough is not immediately imminent.

New warnings from CISA and US military experts demonstrate that PLA-affiliated hacker groups such as Volt Typhoon have been pre-positioned in US power, water, and port networks for years – with the stated goal of shutting them down within hours in the event of war. In parallel, Iranian APT actors are specifically targeting programmable logic controllers (PLCs) in at least twelve US states, prompting CISA to issue its own advisory. The strategic nature of these attacks – not data theft, but sabotage preparation – marks a qualitative escalation compared to previous cyber campaigns.

The Pentagon has formally initiated a review of US military force structure in Europe to ensure that deployment aligns with the 2025 National Security Strategy and the 2026 Defense Strategy. Defense Secretary Colby emphasizes that the alliance must be recalibrated – interpreted in Europe as a signal that a reduction or restructuring of approximately 100,000 stationed US troops is possible. The review increases pressure on EU states to build their own defense capabilities more rapidly and could structurally alter NATO cohesion.

Security experts warn in a new analysis that AI-driven autonomous attack tools can transform digital intrusions into physical disasters – power outages, water supply interruptions, or logistics failures without real-time human control. The US military, as part of Cyber Shield 2026, conducted the first fully AI-simulated attack scenario on power infrastructure with over 1,000 specialists from 23 nations. The qualitative shift lies in the fact that attackers no longer require real-time operators – which fundamentally complicates attribution and response time.