Defense Briefing

According to multiple sources, including CBS News, the USA and Israel are planning the heaviest bombing campaign against Iran's energy infrastructure to date – attacks could begin this weekend. Trump stated he is losing faith in reaching a deal with Tehran after Iran once again fired rockets at US bases in Jordan and broke the fragile ceasefire. A large-scale attack on Iranian energy facilities would severely shake the oil market and expand escalation risks across the entire region.

On the night of July 31, Russia fired approximately 25 ballistic missiles of the Iskander and Zircon type at Kyiv, with a residential building in the Shevchenko district directly hit. The attack occurred simultaneously with drone attacks on Sumy and guided bombs on other regions – one of the heaviest coordinated barrages in months. ISW data also shows that Russia killed as many Ukrainian civilians in June 2026 as in any other month over the past four years.

The FBI confirms coordinated cyberattacks on water supply systems in at least seven US states, with over 30 facilities compromised in Minnesota alone – resulting in loss of control over pumps and treatment plants. CISA identifies Iran-affiliated APT actors as primary suspects, escalating in response to US-Israeli military strikes. The attacks mark a new dimension: cyber operations are being deliberately deployed as kinetic pressure tools parallel to missile strikes.

The Pentagon has formally initiated a six-month review of US troop presence in Europe, with the stated goal of shifting defense burden more heavily onto European NATO allies. Analysts warn that significant US withdrawal endangers conventional deterrence against Russia – especially at a time when Moscow has massively increased strike frequency against Ukrainian cities. Europe thus faces a paradox: record spending of $634 billion USD (2.53% GDP), but still lacks corresponding operational capability.

On Polymarket, a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia by December 2026 is assessed at 28% probability – the odds rose 11 percentage points over the past month. Triggers include a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile that violated Polish airspace, as well as ongoing Russian drone attacks near NATO borders. NATO Secretary General Rutte and several intelligence agencies warn that Russia could be militarily ready by 2030 to initiate a major conflict with the alliance.