Defense Briefing

NATO has confirmed that a Russian missile struck Polish state territory, violating NATO territory. The alliance stated it would take 'all necessary measures' to protect the alliance territory. Polymarket now prices the probability of direct NATO-Russia military conflict by August at 8% – a weekly increase of 8 percentage points.

Following Iran's missile attack on a US base in Jordan, the USA jointly with Saudi Arabia hit dozens of IRGC targets and Iran-backed positions in Iraq – a new escalation level through Riyadh's involvement. Kuwait and Jordan also reported Iranian drone attacks on their territory. European allies rejected participation in US naval operations according to Reddit, revealing cracks in the coalition.

Russia has stationed 10 Su-30SM2 fighter jets in Kaliningrad for simulated precision bombing strikes on command posts and fortified positions directly at the NATO border. The Baltic Fleet exercise is assessed as a deliberate show of force against the alliance, occurring simultaneously with the missile incident in Poland. NATO Secretary General Rutte warned that Russia could be capable of large-scale conflict before 2030.

Ukraine is conducting a systematic drone campaign to isolate Crimea – targets include bridges, ports, oil refineries, and supply routes, including an attack on the Perm refinery from over 1,500 km distance. Simultaneously, a Ukrainian brigade struck a Russian warship in the port of Mariupol. According to ISW, Russia continues to show only minimal territorial gains at massive own losses – 131,000 Russian casualties in 2026 alone.

Italian Prime Minister Meloni openly threatened to suspend the Schengen Agreement against Spain over the migration crisis in Ceuta. The EPP supports the criticism, speaking of EU readmission rules failure. The threat marks a new low in intra-European dispute over migration policy and endangers the functionality of the internal market.