Defense Briefing

Iran has fired missiles at American forces in the Middle East for the first time since the US attack pause – CENTCOM calls it an 'attempted surprise attack', all missiles were intercepted. The fragile ceasefire is now officially broken, Trump meets with Netanyahu simultaneously and threatens a maximum attack. Polymarket sees an effective ceasefire as only 44–63 % probable by end of July.

Washington has initiated a six-month review of its military presence in Europe with the stated goal of pushing European allies more heavily into conventional defense. The US National Defense Strategy 2026 explicitly provides for a reduction in American engagement – a paradigm shift for NATO architecture. Europe now faces the task of closing capability gaps independently, while defense spending is rising to record levels, but according to NATO Chief Rutte remains 'insufficient'.

Ukraine fired nearly 400 drones at Moscow and surrounding cities, causing airport closures and building damage – a qualitative leap in deep strike capability. Simultaneously, Russia achieves systematic successful strikes on multiple high-value Ukrainian targets deep behind the front for the first time since the war began, indicating changed Russian capabilities. ISW documents massive Russian losses for July 2026 (222,500 casualties Jan–Jul), while Polymarket rates a ceasefire by year-end at only 36 %.

The US Army identifies the convergence of IT and Operational Technology networks as the most critical attack surface for critical infrastructure in its largest cyber exercise 2026 (1,000+ participants, 23 countries). CISA warns in parallel of escalating Iranian APT attacks on US water systems, energy facilities, and control systems (PLCs), directly linked to the ongoing Iran war. 75 % of all incidents at British Critical Infrastructure are attributed to hostile states – Russia and Iran lead the perpetrator list.

Despite massively increased threat perception, a majority of the Polish population rejects the reintroduction of military conscription – a paradox given NATO's demands for higher defense readiness. Resistance stems from historically negative experiences with mandatory service and social pressure on the conscripted generation. The dilemma affects all of Europe: Rising spending alone does not solve the structural problem of missing personnel reserves, leaving NATO's eastern flank vulnerable in the medium term.