Defense Briefing

Iran fired missiles at the US base Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan – two US soldiers were killed, several wounded. This represents a new escalation level, as Jordan is directly targeted for the first time and US personnel dies on Jordanian soil. The US has subsequently launched a ninth wave of attacks against Iran, including strikes on infrastructure such as desalination plants.

In an unusual move, France's counterintelligence has publicly named a specific Russian military unit near St. Petersburg as responsible for cyberattacks on the Defense Ministry, the French embassy in Moscow, and justice servers. This step toward public attribution signals a new political escalation readiness in dealing with Russian espionage. The incident underscores how deeply Russian intelligence services have penetrated Western government structures.

France has offered Germany co-production of the SAMP/T NG air defense system as a European alternative to the US Patriot system. The offer comes against the backdrop of growing skepticism about US reliability and the desire for strategic autonomy. A Franco-German agreement would significantly strengthen European defense cooperation and set a precedent for replacing US-dependent systems.

Russia has had no warships in the Mediterranean for the first time in 13 years – the Syrian port of Tartus no longer serves as a permanent naval base. This is a direct consequence of Russia's loss of influence in Syria and ongoing military attrition from the Ukraine war. However, analysts warn that Russia may relocate to bases in Eastern Libya.

The ceasefire market for Ukraine/Russia by end of 2026 has fallen 11 percentage points to 36% this month – a significant collapse in peace hopes. Simultaneously, the probability of diplomatic meetings this week drops 19.5% to 56%. Russia's planned fall mobilization of 500,000 soldiers and continued advances near Kramatorsk suggest an extended war duration.