Defense Briefing

Iran struck a US military base in Jordan with missiles and drones, killing two American soldiers – the first US combat deaths since April. The US responded immediately with a new wave of strikes on Iranian targets, while Iran simultaneously attacks Gulf states again and threatens complete destruction of regional infrastructure. The escalation spiral reaches a new, more dangerous level: US planning for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities is moving into striking distance according to reports.

Russia is reportedly planning the mobilization of 500,000 soldiers by fall 2026 and intends to open new fronts simultaneously – a sign of strategic reorientation following the stalled spring-summer offensive. Western intelligence agencies and NATO Secretary General Rutte are already warning that Russia could be capable of a larger conflict with NATO by 2030. Combined with the risk of US troop reductions in Europe, this significantly sharpens the threat situation for the eastern flank.

NATO is reportedly developing internal plans that foresee a defense of Europe without direct US involvement – an unprecedented step reflecting the deepest identity crisis of the alliance since the Cold War. The new US National Defense Strategy explicitly envisions a reduction of conventional US forces in Europe as long as Europeans build their own capabilities. Simultaneously, the US State Department is actively funding anti-European organizations that take action against EU institutions – raising questions about Washington's strategic intentions.

Germany and France have abandoned the basic concept of the joint main battle tank project MGCS (Main Ground Combat System) – only shortly after the failure of the FCAS combat aircraft project, another major setback for European defense cooperation. The failure of both flagship projects reveals Europe's structural inability to act coherently despite massively increasing defense budgets. Given the simultaneous US withdrawal signals and Russian mobilization announcement, the timing is particularly significant.

The EU has officially excluded Ukrainian men of military age (18–60) from temporary protection status – a politically highly controversial decision that could help Kyiv with recruitment but could also lead to forced return of refugees. The decision triggers intense debate over individual freedom rights versus collective defense obligations and stands in direct contradiction to the treatment of male refugees from other conflict zones. Polymarket data already shows a decline in ceasefire expectations, increasing pressure on Kyiv to bolster frontline forces.