Defense Briefing

The USA conducted a fifth wave of attacks against Iran after Tehran again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on a Cypriot container ship. Iran responded with missile strikes on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE – the confrontation is expanding regionally. Polymarket sees only a 3% chance of normalization of Hormuz traffic by end of July, which has massive implications for global energy supply and shipping costs.

The Ukrainian city of Bachivsk fell on July 11 according to military analysts, while Kostiantynivka remains under massive Russian rocket fire and is considered the last defensible front section. Russia recorded a net gain of 31 square miles of territory in June, categorically rejects any ceasefire along the current front line. The 'Coalition of the Willing' meets on July 13 in Paris to coordinate further Ukraine support – a sign of growing European self-responsibility.

Following the Ankara summit, geopolitics experts analyze that NATO is structurally becoming more European while the USA wants to gradually reduce its conventional troop presence in Europe according to the National Defense Strategy 2026. Critics warn that Moscow could interpret this transition as a strategic gap and exploit it – especially while US resources are tied up in the Iran conflict. Congress has at least anchored a floor of 76,000 US troops in Europe in law through the NDAA 2026.

A new Euractiv analysis shows that the NATO infrastructure spending target of 1.5% of GDP agreed upon at the Ankara summit could trigger an economic boost of up to 822 billion euros for Europe. Europe's defense spending increased by 11% in 2026 to 634 billion dollars – the largest increase since the end of the Cold War. Massive investment opportunities are opening up for industry and the defense sector, while Slovenia is the only NATO member still missing the 2% target.

The cybersecurity weekly report for July 2026 shows a clear increase in AI-driven attacks on critical infrastructure – parallel to the ongoing military conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, state-sponsored cyber threats are rising massively. Polymarket assesses the probability of another critical Cloudflare incident by end of July at 64%, underscoring the fragility of Western Internet infrastructure. Companies are confronted with Ransomware 3.0, deepfake fraud, and zero-day exploits; cybercrime could cost the global economy 15.6 trillion dollars by 2029.