July 12, 2026 · 05:03 Uhr
The USA has launched a third wave of attacks against Iran after the IRGC again attacked cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran fired back at US military bases in the Gulf and threatened the UAE with missile strikes. The Polymarket sees a 60% chance of a US blockade of Iran by the end of July – the conflict is entering a new, more dangerous phase.
Spain has increased its NATO spending following a US trade embargo ultimatum – a concrete result of the Ankara summit that shows how Washington uses economic pressure as a security policy instrument. Europe and Canada's total NATO spending will rise to $634 billion in 2026 (+11%), but remains far below US levels. Turkey used the home advantage of the summit to demand a stronger role in Europe's defense architecture.
Belgium's Prime Minister Bart De Wever unknowingly brought a loaded, personalized revolver – a gift from Turkish President Erdogan – from the NATO summit back to Belgium. The gift was opened only after landing; security authorities were notified. The incident illustrates the diplomatically charged atmosphere of the Ankara summit and sparked broad public debate about security protocols for state gifts.
Ukrainian drones have systematically struck Russian oil refineries deep into Siberia, triggering a nationwide fuel crisis – rationing and long queues at gas stations are the consequence. The ISW also reports a Ukrainian surprise counteroffensive putting Russian generals under pressure. Economic warfare via drone is becoming the new strategic reality, keeping Russia's war economy under constant pressure.
Britain's NCSC warns that 75% of all cyberattacks on critical national infrastructure come from state actors – among 200 documented incidents between June 2025 and May 2026. Iranian hackers are deliberately targeting US energy infrastructure according to CISA, while AI-powered attack methods (prompt injection, deepfakes) exponentially increase defense efforts. CIRCIA reporting requirements for critical infrastructure are to be finalized by autumn 2026.
The security situation in Europe and the broader region has acutely deteriorated in recent days: The US-Iran conflict has entered an openly escalatory phase with a third American wave of attacks and Iranian counterstrikes on Gulf bases, directly threatening the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy artery. In parallel, the Ukraine front remains a war of attrition without ceasefire prospects despite Ukrainian drone successes in Russian hinterland – Polymarket sees only a 42% chance of a ceasefire by year's end. While the NATO summit in Ankara has approved new defense spending, Europe's structural dependence on US security guarantees alongside uncertain American alliance loyalty remains the central strategic risk. State-sponsored cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are increasing quantitatively and qualitatively, complementing conventional conflicts as a hybrid threat dimension.
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