Defense Briefing

After several days of mutual strikes – including Iranian attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait – the USA and Iran have agreed to a provisional ceasefire and the resumption of diplomatic talks. Polymarket sees a next meeting in Qatar with 43% probability. The fragility of peace remains high: Trump threatened on June 28 to 'finish the job', which keeps markets and regional actors further on edge.

Ukraine struck two Russian oil refineries in the Krasnodar and Yaroslavl regions on the night of June 28 – the facility in Slavyansk-on-Kuban supplied almost entirely Russia's southern regions with fuel. The Moscow oil refinery is already out of operation until at least 2027. This targeted campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure represents a new strategic dimension of the war and significantly increases economic pressure on Moscow.

Putin publicly admitted that Russia has 'problems' in the Ukraine war – an unusual acknowledgment – but simultaneously reaffirmed his intention to continue the front offensive regardless of Ukrainian peace proposals. Polymarket rates a ceasefire by year-end at only 42%. ISW reports confirm massive Russian supply problems around Kostiantynivka, while Ukrainian drone attacks on TU-95 and TU-22 bombers weaken Russia's air fleet.

Norway, Germany, and the United Kingdom have signed a trilateral agreement on maritime surveillance and anti-submarine operations – a direct signal of strengthening European responsibility within the NATO framework. The agreement coincides with the NATO Ankara summit and is part of Europe's response to Hegseth's 'NATO 3.0' ultimatum. It underscores that Europe is building concrete defense cooperation outside the US-led framework as well.

Several EU member states are considering the reintroduction of a regime for automatic monitoring of private messages – officially to combat child abuse, but assessed by data protection advocates as a massive infringement of fundamental rights. The step provokes sharp reactions in the privacy community and could effectively hollow out end-to-end encryption. For tech companies and security experts, implementation would have far-reaching consequences for product design and compliance in Europe.