Defense Briefing

Zelenskyy has announced a 40-day series of attacks to force Russia into de-escalation – with preemptive strikes on Russian war infrastructure. Ukraine is targeting railway bridges over Aidar and Luhanchyk as well as logistics routes on Crimea. Polymarket sees a ceasefire by end of 2026 at only 40% probability – trending downward.

Russia is exerting massive pressure on Belarus to actively enter the Ukraine war and open a new northern front, according to reports. Lukashenko is reportedly resisting, but the escalation threat significantly increases the risk for NATO's eastern flank state Poland. Belarusian military involvement would overturn NATO's entire defense planning for the eastern flank.

Poland is sounding the alarm: Warsaw officially warns that Russia could stage a pretext attack following Nazi tactics from 1939 to justify further escalation. Simultaneously, Poland and the USA are concretely discussing two possible locations for a new permanent US military base on Polish territory. The combination of false flag risk and accelerated NATO presence shows how seriously the threat perception on the eastern flank is taken.

Iran has again attacked a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, interrupting ongoing UN efforts to evacuate blocked vessels – despite the current 60-day deal with the USA. Polymarket rates normalization of Hormuz traffic by end of June at only 8% – the blockade effectively remains in place. Trump simultaneously threatened to resume attacks if Iran does not rein in its Hezbollah allies, further endangering the fragile peace roadmap.

The five largest European military powers met for preliminary talks before the NATO summit in Ankara – a sign of growing European autonomy within the alliance. France calls for an 'orderly' US troop withdrawal and cautions that Europe should not attempt to replace expensive US equipment one-for-one. Analysts see Ankara 2026 as a potential turning point toward a 'Europeanization' of NATO – driven by Hegseth's 6-month ultimatum and Italy's public dispute with NATO Secretary General Rutte over US base use.