Defense Briefing

The USA and Iran have signed a peace deal providing for a 60-day ceasefire and negotiations on a permanent agreement – Polymarket values the chance of a permanent deal by December at 99%. Israel continues its attacks in Lebanon despite the deal, openly positioning itself against Trump, revealing serious tensions between Washington and Tel Aviv. The Strait of Hormuz, whose closure had shaken global energy markets, is to be gradually reopened – however, economists warn that elevated energy prices will persist for months.

The USA is reducing its combat aircraft stationed in Europe by a third and withdrawing aerial refueling aircraft, while the Pentagon calls on Europe to assume primary responsibility for conventional defense. NATO's top military officer is developing alternative defense plans for the first time for a scenario without full US support. Germany is accelerating its own defense investments and announces it will take security into its own hands – a historic paradigm shift in transatlantic defense architecture.

Trump promotes the new NATO defense spending target of 5% of GDP as the 'Hague Defense Commitment' and a personal victory – the upcoming summit in Ankara will determine whether Europe and Canada can credibly assume greater responsibility. According to Polymarket, the probability that Trump himself will attend the summit is 83%. Italy's announced 2.8% and the new 5% targets mark a break with decades of underfunding, but analysts doubt short-term implementation.

The Pentagon has rejected the sale of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany – according to analysts, possibly because the USA itself suffers from acute ammunition shortages after massive deployment against Iran. The incident is regarded as proof that security policy decoupling between the USA and Europe is no longer a theoretical danger but lived reality. Europe is responding with increased defense cooperation, such as the Rheinmetall-Korea deal for air defense systems, and accelerated development of independent capabilities.

On June 15, Russia conducted the war's largest air attack to date with 681 drones and missiles, overwhelming Ukrainian air defense in several sectors. On the ground, ISW reports Russian advances near Kupiansk, while Kostiantynivka faces increasing pressure – analysts estimate the probability of Russian invasion by Q3 2026 at 55–65%. Simultaneously, Ukraine continues its successful drone campaign against Russian logistics and bridges on the Crimea land corridor, pointing to an attrition strategy.