Defense Briefing

On February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), killing Khamenei and destroying nuclear facilities – the conflict ended on May 5 with a fragile ceasefire. Polymarket rates the probability of a lasting US-Iran peace deal by end of 2026 at 74%, with Iran demanding US withdrawal from the Middle East as a condition. Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains the central economic risk factor, as US gasoline prices have risen to $6 per gallon.

NATO Secretary General Rutte calls for a redistribution of alliance burdens and less dependence on a single partner – meaning the USA – at the ministerial meeting in Sweden. The Economist reports on a secret European 'Plan B' for alternative defense structures, while Europe simultaneously builds its own defense industry (e.g., Poland's Abrams service center, Romania's 16 billion euro SAFE deal). Strategic decoupling from Washington is accelerating structurally, driving the European defense industry massively in the long term.

Russia's spring-summer offensive of 2026 has achieved no significant territorial gains according to ISW – Ukraine stabilizes the front and even regains terrain in Zaporizhzhia. The battlefield is evolving away from trench warfare toward a 300-km drone kill zone, while Ukraine simultaneously destroyed over 40 Russian military aircraft deep in Russian territory with 'Operation Spiderweb'. Polymarket rates a ceasefire by end of May at only 42%, a diplomatic meeting at 62%.

Industrial control systems (SCADA/OT) have evolved from secondary targets to primary operational attack points in modern conflicts, according to military analysts. Iran-aligned groups such as APT33 and MuddyWater increasingly deploy wiper malware against critical infrastructure, while CISA simultaneously alerts organizations to prepare for cyber outages. The US telecommunications industry responds with the establishment of C2 ISAC for joint threat defense, massively increasing pressure on OT security solutions.

At the GLOBSEC conference in Prague, a paradigmatic frame shift took place: Czech President declared Ukraine support no longer as solidarity, but as direct investment in European security. NATO Director Olena Tregub confirmed that Ukraine is now considered Europe's strongest conventional military power – an assessment that fundamentally strengthens Kyiv's negotiating position vis-à-vis Western partners and future security guarantees. This revaluation could redefine European security architecture and the question of future NATO membership.