Defense Briefing

According to ISW analysis and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Ukraine's front position is the strongest in a year – fueled by drone superiority and enhanced air defense. Simultaneously, Russia is intensifying its spring-summer offensive, particularly in the Slovyansk area. Polymarket currently sees only a 25% chance of a peace treaty before 2027 – the situation remains highly dynamic despite Ukrainian strength.

The US National Defense Strategy 2026 officially stipulates that conventional defense of Europe will be primarily transferred to NATO allies – not a rumor, but adopted policy. Europe responds with record spending: +14% to 864 billion USD in 2025, Poland plans 5% of GDP for 2026. The question of whether Article 5 will apply in a crisis is openly discussed as unresolved at the Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum.

A drone struck the outer areas of the UAE's only nuclear power plant on May 18, triggering a fire – no casualties, no radiation leak, but a targeted signal to an Israel-aligned state. In parallel, NYT and Pentagon sources report that the USA and Israel are planning new joint attacks on Iran for the coming week; WTI oil briefly rose to 112 USD. War day 79 marks a qualitative escalation: the conflict expands to third states and their critical infrastructure.

EU heads of state and government have tasked the Commission with developing an implementation plan for the lesser-known mutual defense obligation from the Lisbon Treaty (Art. 42.7) – as a possible NATO-independent security architecture. The step follows reports that the USA is considering suspending Spain from NATO and signals a historic paradigm shift in European security policy. Smaller coalitions and bilateral defense agreements are growing in parallel as short-term safeguards.

IRGC-affiliated hacker group CyberAv3ngers has allegedly infiltrated US water and energy infrastructure since March 2026 and manipulated Rockwell PLC control logic – among 5,219 exposed systems, operators show false readings. Poland's ABW intelligence service simultaneously warns that Russian cyber operations are shifting from espionage to physical sabotage, with multiple planned attacks on military facilities prevented. This represents a new dimension: cyber attacks increasingly serve as kinetic preparation instruments.