Defense Briefing

The front-line situation in the Ukraine war is assessed by experts as a complete stalemate: Russia has achieved only 381.5 km² in gains since the start of the year with massive losses. Polymarket sees a 48% chance of a ceasefire by end of May, while diplomatic talks are expected to take place with 73% probability still in June. The German defense minister sees the first signs of a turning point in Ukraine's favor.

According to consistent reports, the USA and Israel are preparing to resume war against Iran following the failure of nuclear negotiations—possibly this week. Polymarket shows a sharp decline in peace chances (down 47% this month), while Iran's airspace could be shut down with 54% probability soon. Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026 with the killing of Khamenei and triggered massive Iranian counterattacks on Israel and US bases.

Ex-NATO Secretary General Rasmussen warns of the 'collapse' of the alliance and calls for a new European defense structure with its own Article 5 mechanism—exclusively for countries meeting the 5% GDP target. The background is the burden-shifting to Europe explicitly anchored in the US Defense Strategy Document 2026, combined with troop withdrawals from Germany and the paused Poland deployment. Europe is responding with bilateral security agreements, new procurement programs, and discussions about EU Article 42.7 as a NATO alternative.

CISA officially warns all critical organizations to prepare for cyber outages, while Poland's intelligence service ABW reports a dangerous shift in Russian attack strategy: away from espionage, toward physical sabotage of critical infrastructure with potential risk to human lives. At the same time, pro-Iranian hacker groups confirmed increased attacks on US gas stations and energy infrastructure in retaliation for the Iran war. AI-generated zero-days were confirmed for the first time in the wild.

For the first time since 1994, Spain has exceeded the 2% GDP threshold—with an increase of 50% in just one year. Europe spent a total of 864 billion dollars on defense in 2025 (up 14%), with all NATO members except Malta increasing their spending. Poland leads with approximately 4.5% GDP (46.8 billion USD) and plans around 5% for 2026, illustrating the geopolitical shift in weight within NATO toward the eastern flank.