Defense Briefing

Iran has officially threatened to enrich uranium to weapons grade should the USA or Israel attack again – a direct nuclear escalation threat. Simultaneously, Trump rejected Iran's recent counter-proposal, while the IRGC rallied the population for a 'final war'. Polymarket rates the probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by end of May at only 16%.

Former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen warns of a 'disintegration' of the alliance and demands a new European defense bloc – including Ukraine as a full member and an Article-5-like guarantee mechanism. The context is the new US National Defense Strategy 2026, which explicitly transfers conventional European defense to the Europeans. Polymarket assesses a US-NATO withdrawal before 2027 at 8% as low, but the structural burden shift is considered effectively already accomplished.

Carnegie Europe highlights the growing strategic importance of the Turkish defense industry for Europe – as a concrete lever to reduce dependence on US weapons supplies. This gains significance as the EU builds its 'Readiness 2030' framework for interoperable forces and Canada according to r/EUnews increasingly acts like a 28th EU member. The realignment of transatlantic defense structures is accelerating measurably.

Russian forces suffer over 25,000 monthly losses according to WarMonitor and show massive resupply problems at the front, while Ukrainian deep strikes sever supply lines to Donezk. ISW confirms: Russia's spring-summer offensive 2026 has so far been fruitless, Ukrainian forces have retaken 400 km² since April. New and significant: Putin publicly stated he believes the war 'is coming to an end' – a rhetorical shift that drove Polymarket's peace deal market to 37% (before 2027).

Polish domestic intelligence service ABW explicitly warns: Russian-backed cyberattacks are shifting from espionage to physical destruction of critical infrastructure – multiple sabotage operations against military and civilian infrastructure in Poland have been uncovered. Some of the planned attacks could have cost lives. This represents a qualitative escalation from known cyber-espionage patterns and directly impacts the NATO eastern flank.